General Mobilization in Russia Could End in Collapse for the Putin Regime Itself
Ivan Sichen
As shown by the analysis of the situation on the front lines, Russia still cannot achieve any real success in the so-called battle of the Donbas. In more than two weeks, Russian troops have been unable to advance more than three or five kilometers. And that – only on some directions. That is, Moscow proved to be incapable of achieving not only strategic but also tactical success. And thus – Russia is really losing the war in Ukraine. However, this does not mean that Russia will stop aggression against our state. The Putin regime will continue the war to the last, even at the cost of destroying Russia itself. Currently, the only such opportunities for the Kremlin are the imposition of martial law in Russia and general mobilization. Let us analyze the possible consequences of such actions for the Russian Federation itself.
Agony. This is the only way to describe the state of the Putin regime. In what psychological state it must be to consciously demonstrate its aggressive and inhuman nature to the entire United Nations. How else to explain the missile strike on Kyiv in late April 2022 – exactly when the UN Secretary General A. Guterres was in the Ukrainian capital.
Of course, only the Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin could order such an attack, which is another confirmation of the complete inadequacy of this man (if he can still be called that). By such actions, he only confirms Russia’s strategic defeat not only in the war against the whole of Ukraine, but even in the Donbas. Thus, according to the head of the Donetsk regional administration P. Kyrylenko, the military plans of the Russian occupiers in the region for May 2022 have actually been broken.
Indeed, what the levers remained for Russia when the whole world opposes it. Thus, at a meeting of defense ministers of about 40 partner countries of Ukraine at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, the issue of providing weapons to Ukraine to strengthen its capabilities in the war with Russia was discussed. And Western weapons are already coming to our state, as confirmed by the development of the situation on the front lines.
Of course, it is very difficult for Ukrainian defenders to resist the overwhelming enemy. However, Ukraine is confidently going to victory. As noted above, Russia has not made real progress in any of its offensives in the East and South of Ukraine. Besides, Moscow’s loss of much of its military resources in grueling battles will inevitably force it to move to the defense in the near future.
At the same time, based on the Kremlin’s strategic goals, it will not abandon its plans for Ukraine. Therefore, it will continue the war until the last opportunity. Evidence of such prospects is the actual beginning of covert mobilization in Russia, which is carried out under the guise of formation various paramilitary units.
For example, since the end of April 2022 in Rostov and Belgorod regions of Russia, they have been conducting recruitment to the so-called Cossack battalions, which are planned to be sent to Ukraine. In particular, they must make up for the losses of the 8th and 20th Combined Arms Armies of the Russian Armed Forces, which were partially defeated near Kharkiv and Mariupol.
At the moment, the Cossack units are completing training at training grounds and preparing to be sent to the front. However, this is unlikely to allow Russia to restore the combat potential of its armed forces at the required level. Several battalions, anyway, “are not about rainmaking”.
Under such circumstances, Moscow is stepping up its efforts to increase the level of motivation for the Russian citizens’ service in the country’s armed forces. The range of such motivations is quite wide – from promises of high salaries for combatants (cash for servicemen) and opportunities to plunder Ukraine, to an aggressive anti-Ukrainian campaign. Most notably, after two months of war, the main content of such a campaign is not so much the idea of “liberating Ukraine from Ukrainian nationalists” (as it was before) as insinuations about “Ukraine’s aggression against Russia”.
It is with the aim of gathering and disseminating “evidences of Ukrainian aggression” among ordinary Russian citizens that Russian special services are organizing armed provocations in Russia’s regions, which are becoming more active and large-scaled. Back in late March and early April 2022, they were limited to “shelling of Russian border settlements”, then added fires at oil depots, and now began to blow up railroads and bridges.
“Ukrainian nationalists”, and most likely Russian opponents of Putin’s regime, may or may not have done all that. Which, however, does not change the case. Moreover, the Russian air defense in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod regions regularly report on “repulse of air attacks by Ukraine”, including in order to “prevent the penetration of Ukrainian aircrafts into the depths of Russian territory”. It is ridiculous to mention here – how many times Russia has claimed the “destruction” of the Ukrainian Air Force?
In general, the above-mentioned provocations of the Russian special services are already leading to the spread of panic among residents of the western regions of Russia about the “breakthroughs” of Ukrainian troops, air strikes and new sabotage. As a result, a significant number of Russians are beginning to welcome the possibility of a state of emergency in the country and a general mobilization.
According to the expectations of Russian citizens, decisions on these issues may be announced by Putin on May 9, 2022. According to experts, it may be preceded by the high-profile sabotage by Russian special services at Russian critical infrastructure (in particular, nuclear power plants, chemical plants, etc.). In 1999–2000, the Kremlin justified the beginning of the second war against Chechnya by such sabotages (blowing up houses in Moscow, Volgograd, etc.).
A general mobilization will really allow the Kremlin to make up for the losses of the Russian Armed Forces, to form additional units, as well as to intensify hostilities in various directions in Ukraine. Thus, Russia will begin the third – decisive stage of the war against Ukraine, which will require significant financial and logistical resources and will be an extremely heavy burden on the Russian economy.
It is important to remember that Russians mobilized for military service are unlikely to be more morally motivated than the highly demoralized Russian soldiers who have already gone through grueling battles against Ukrainian defenders and are trying to avoid further sad fate in the war against Ukraine. Here everything is clear. It is one thing to shout chauvinistic slogans and support mobilization while sitting in the rear, and quite another to be on the front line oneself.
Therefore, no one can guarantee that the general mobilization in Russia will not end in collapse of the Putin regime itself. Let us recall the sad fate of Russian Tsar Nicholas II (and the entire Russian Empire), when in 1917 the mobilized left the front and returned home with rifles in their hands.
